This Week's Fiddler: Mar 13, 2026

Posted on Mar 13, 2026

Problem

Build the Cantor set by repeatedly removing the middle third of every remaining interval.

Choose a random point in the Cantor set by independently picking left or right at every stage, each with probability 1/2.

Pick two such points independently. What is the expected distance between them?

Main Solution

At each step you flip a fair coin: heads means "keep the left third," tails means "keep the right third." If you do this forever, you land on a single point \(X\) in the Cantor set.

That description is enough to write a simple self-similarity rule:

\[ X=\begin{cases} \frac13 X_1 & (\text{left third})\\ \frac23+\frac13 X_1 & (\text{right third}) \end{cases} \]

where \(X_1\) is an independent copy of \(X\). It just says: once you pick left or right, the rest of the process looks like a scaled copy of the original.

Now pick two independent Cantor points \(X\) and \(Y\), and let \(D=|X-Y|\). We condition on the first coin flips.

Therefore

\[ \mathbb{E}[D]=\frac12\cdot\frac13\mathbb{E}[D]+\frac12\cdot\frac23. \]

Solving gives

\[ \mathbb{E}[|X-Y|]=\frac{2}{5}=0.4. \]

Generalization: Middle-(1-2a) Cantor Set

Instead of removing the middle third, keep two intervals of length \(a\): \( [0,a] \) and \( [1-a,1] \), with \(0 < a < 1/2\).

The same coin-flip construction gives

\[ X=\begin{cases} aX_1 & (\text{left})\\ (1-a)+aX_1 & (\text{right}) \end{cases} \]

and the expected distance between two independent points becomes

\[ \mathbb{E}[|X-Y|]=\frac{1-a}{2-a}. \]

Plugging in \(a=1/3\) recovers \(2/5\).

This Week's Extra Credit

Now pick three independent Cantor points \(X,Y,Z\). What is the probability they can be the side lengths of a triangle?

Because ties happen with probability 0, we can write

\[ \mathbb{P}(\text{triangle})=1-3\,\mathbb{P}(X\ge Y+Z). \]

Let \(p=\mathbb{P}(X\ge Y+Z)\). We again condition on the first coin flips. Write

\[ X=\frac23 B+\frac13 X_1,\quad Y=\frac23 C+\frac13 Y_1,\quad Z=\frac23 D+\frac13 Z_1, \]

where \(B,C,D\in\{0,1\}\) are the first left/right choices and \(X_1,Y_1,Z_1\) are independent copies of \(X\). Multiply by 3 to get

\[ 2B+X_1\ge 2C+Y_1+2D+Z_1. \]

There are eight equally likely cases for \((B,C,D)\):

Thus

\[ p=\frac18\cdot 1+\frac38\cdot p, \]

so \(p=1/5\). Therefore

\[ \mathbb{P}(\text{triangle})=1-3\cdot\frac15=\frac25=0.4. \]

Monte Carlo Check

These distributions are easy to simulate by truncating the coin-flip process to a finite depth.

The first histogram shows distances \(|X-Y|\). The second shows the triangle slack \(S=(\text{sum of two smaller})-(\text{largest})\), so triangles correspond to \(S>0\).

Distance mean: --
Triangle probability: --

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